Maryland Business

I will look for just about any reason to insert “snowpocalypse” into a sentence this week.

So for today’s excuse — if you haven’t gotten that Valentine’s Day present yet, now’s probably a good time to hop online and order that trinket for overnight delivery before high winds hand you a power outage. With the area’s malls closed again today because of the blizzard, stores could be a war zone on Friday and Saturday as people rush to escape cabin fever and snatch up some last-minute gifts.

And if you’re thinking you’d like to find something different this year instead of the usual flowers, jewelry or candy, you’re not alone. According to the National Retail Federation, practical gifts are stylish this year, with 14.4 percent of shoppers planning on buying a sweater, winter accessory or another clothing option for their loved one. That’s up from just over 10 percent last Valentine’s Day.

In addition, the NRF says men will spend nearly twice as much as women on the holiday this year ($135 compared with $72), and most shoppers will head for discount stores and department stores. Or in the Mid-Atlantic’s case, that may translate to Target.com or Macys.com.

And even if you’re splurging on shipping to make sure your gift gets here by Saturday, you can still make up for that in savings online. Target’s having a Treasure Hunt Deals sale, visit DealCatcher for hundreds of coupons for flowers or electronics or you can be sneaky at Macys.com and buy something for yourself and receive a Lancome gift set for her (or buy something for him and get the gift set for yourself) AND they’ve thrown in free shipping. Sears is also having an online sale of its MP3 players, cameras and digital picture frames.

So as you watch the snow slowly pile against your windows, be thankful you can still look like a superstar to your significant other while barely lifting a finger. Imagine what a pain snowpocalypse would have been in the days before the Internet!

It’s that time of year again — when the shopping for others is completed and now it’s time to shop for yourself and spend all those gift certificates you got for the holidays.

According to the National Retail Federation, more than 5 percent of consumers will buy a holiday gift after Dec. 25 and more than 60 percent of Americans will be out shopping for themselves.

The general talk among retail industry watchers is that the discounts won’t be as steep as last year when stores were just dying to get rid of their excess inventory after a dismal holiday shopping season. In 2009, retailers were able to plan ahead for lower demand and weren’t left holding the bag.

But there are still plenty of bargains out there. Word on the street so far from Retail Eye Partners, a New York-based retail consulting company, is that promotions are continuing to drive traffic.

“We found malls to be busier than off-mall stores like Best Buy, Kohl’s, Target, Wal-Mart, Bed Bath & Beyond, etc. as shoppers finally turned their attention to specialty and apparel stores after weeks of looking for bargains and gifts at the off-mall stores,” the company said in a press release.

Macy’s is currently offering 15 percent off all online purchases, JCPenny has a code for 30-70% percent off their items with 99-cent shipping and numerous retailers have slashed their clearance and sales items to even lower prices.

Click on this link from shopping-bargains.com for some of the best sales and clearances going on out there from now through the first week of January.

Happy bargain-hunting!

How desperate are high-end retailers? They’re so hungry for customers this holiday season, they’re willing to literally give away thousands of dollars to shoppers who buy something from their Web site.

The promotion is called “Mystery Money” — those who are on stores’ e-mail lists are sent a gift card number, but the dollar amount isn’t revealed until online checkout. The gift cards range from $20 to $1,000, and stores like Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdales are sending e-mails to their customers encouraging them to shop online to see what their gift card amount is.

After a couple tries this morning with TDR’s Danielle Ulman, we figured the gift card amounts are based on what you spend — if you pop a $140 make-up cream in your online shopping cart, you’ll get $20 off at checkout. If you spring for a $500 pair of shoes, you’ll get $50 off. In other words, it’s just like a percentage discount coupon…only it sounds nicer.

Bloomingdales is actually a little less mysterious than Saks — their e-mail promotion (which is for Wednesday only) gives you the option to enter your gift card number and see what the amount is before you start shopping. We tried that too…and came up with $20. Good luck finding anything at Bloomingdales remotely close to that amount!

All in all, the promotions reek of desperation. And why not? Macy’s which owns Bloomongdales, lost $35 million last quarter. And aside from the second quarter this year (from May through July), its net income line has been in the red for more than a year.

Saks hasn’t done much better. Saks Inc. made $6.3 million last quarter but that was the first gross profit the company had made in more than a year. It lost more than $59.3 million during the second quarter this year. The company also announced Wednesday it is cutting 116 jobs at its flagship store in New York.

Meanwhile, how is competitor Nordstom doing? Thanks to a boost in online sales and sales at its off-price alter ego, Nordstrom Rack, the company posted a 2.2 increase in year-over-year sales in November and its net income has ranged from $68 million to $105 million over the last year.

Seems like the public has spoken — a $2,000 handbag just isn’t cutting it anymore.

While clothes and books were the big attractions for in-store shoppers on Black Friday weekend, Cyber Monday — so far — is all about consumer electronics.

I spoke to Graham Jones, vice president, merchant accounts for PriceGrabber.com, midway through the day, and he said online shoppers were already creating a clear trend. GPS devices and Nintendo Wii-related items were overwhelmingly taking up the top slots in sales halfway through the day (on the East Coast).

“The big story in previous years was HD-TVs and plasmas,” said Jones. “They were at the top last year, and now they’re not even in the top 20 this year….People still want to buy electronics, but they don’t want spend as much [as prior years].”

Jones also said more people are buying practical gifts this year, and PriceGrabber is seeing an increase in traffic for home improvement and auto service purchases. PriceGrabber is an online comparison shopping site that tracks its traffic by its referrals to merchants.

“So you have people wanting to gift but to [help the recipient] save money also,” he said.

The online spending typically begins around 9 a.m. Eastern and continues until about 8 p.m. EST/5 p.m. PST, corresponding with the workday. Peaks are typically around lunch hours (between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. EST) and towards the end of the workday (between 4 and 6 p.m. EST), according to PriceGrabber’s statistics.

So fess up…who here’s been shopping at work? And what did you get?
Top products for Cyber Monday as of noon EST
1. Wii Console
2. Apple 8GB iPod touch - Black
3. nuvi 255W Wide-Screen Automotive GPS
4. iPod touch 16GB MP3 Player (Internal Flash Drive, 22 Hours)
5. Wii Fit
6. nuvi 265WT GPS
7. Office 2007 Home and Student (Full Product, PC)
8. Digital Rebel XSI 12MP Black Digital SLR Camera w/ EF-S 18-55mm Kit
9. nuvi 765T GPS
10. D90 SLR Digital Camera Kit
11. Xbox 360 Premium System
12. Apple 8GB iPod nano Blue
13. nuvi 205W GPS
14. Apple 32GB iPod touch - Black
15. Nintendo DS Limited Edition Pokemon Pack

Individual spending during Black Friday weekend (the Friday, Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving) was down 8 percent this year to $343.31, or about $29 less than last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

And that’s even though the number of shoppers increased for the three-day kick-start to the holiday shopping season — 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 172 million last year.

Shoppers appear to be diversifying their limited spending as purchases in most categories went up or stayed the same over last year. Toys, sporting goods, health/beauty items and gift cards were up over last year. The most popular purchases were clothing (50.9 percent), consumer electronics (36.9 percent) and books (40.3 percent), which remained nearly unchanged over last year.

The only categories to see a decline in purchases were home decor and “miscellaneous/other.” To see the full survey results, click here.

Here’s what NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin had to say: “While retailers are encouraged by the number of Americans who shopped over Black Friday weekend, they know they have their work cut out for them to keep people coming back through Christmas. Shoppers can continue to expect retailers to focus on low prices and bargains through the end of December.”

While Black Friday has typically NOT been the biggest sales day of the year (that has usually come during the first two weeks of December), the Friday after Thanksgiving in 2008 did end up being the top day of that year for retailers.

Considering how the rest of the season went (a total spending decline of about 3 percent), it seems retailers have every reason to be worried about what this year’s Black Friday weekend means for the rest of their season. And they had better be hoping that this year’s Black Friday isn’t yet again the biggest shopping day of the year.

Maybe some retailers can make up the difference with online sales. But that’s looking shaky too — 28 percent of shoppers during Black Friday weekend bought something online, according to the NRF. That’s down from 34 percent last year.

Stay tuned for another blog today on a Cyber Monday sales update from PriceGrabber.com’s president, Laura Conrad.

The National Retail Federation is predicting up to 134 million people will shop this Friday, Saturday or Sunday — that’s higher than the 128 million people who planned to do so last year.

According to the survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 57 million people say they will definitely hit the stores while another 77 million are waiting to see what retailers are planning before heading out the door.

Here’s the breakdown:

* 66.3 percent plan to shop at discount stores
* 62.4 percent plan to shop at department stores
* 41 percent will shop at electronics stores
* 36.3 percent are going to a clothing/clothing accessories store
* 28.8 percent are shopping at a grocery store (this to me is most interesting)

Most people are heading out the door before 9 a.m. with a few (one in 10) braving the Midnight-to-3 a.m. hours, and about 28 percent each heading out from 4 to 6 a.m and 7 to 9 a.m.

Pamela Goodfellow, a senior analyst with BIGresearch noted in the news release that consumers are still expected to remain cautious. But “the anticipation of Black Friday deals seems to be coaxing shoppers out of hibernation, many arriving to stores early and with coupons in hand.”

We’ve also heard caution that inventory levels will be lower this year, as Lisa Bisenius, associate general manager at the White Marsh Mall, noted in my story last month: “…if people see something they want, they’d better get it because you may not get it at a later date.”

I wonder if that perception will drive Black Friday (and Cyber Monday) shopping this year, only to see a drop off in the week following. Do consumers feel they had better get their gifts now while there still in stock? Will we see that last-minute-shopper surge this year or will that be more subdued?

One thing’s for sure though, the bargains will again be hot this year. Shop.org’s CyberMonday.com, will feature a “Deal of the Hour” on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Retailers participating in the Black Friday Deal of the Hour include Overstock.com, Sears and American Eagle. (Click here for the full list of companies and times.) Offers include free shipping, discounts and free gifts with purchase.

In no particular order some of my parking lot/garage pet peeves are:

1) Patiently waiting for a space only to have someone steal it from you.

2) Being stuck behind a car in a garage that YOU know will only have free spaces on the top floors…yet the person in front of you is delusional and inches along looking for that mythical free space on floors one through six.

3) Someone has pulled into their parking space with no regard for humanity and is hanging over into the space next to it, essentially taking two precious spaces while the rest of us are desperately driving around and hoping we’ll find a place to park before sundown.

So, yes — there are some holiday shopping stresses to be endured before we even set foot in the mall. AAA Mid-Atlantic has sent out a news release reminding us all to be nice to each other in the Land of No Civilization (otherwise known as the parking lot).

“Do not let trivial parking lot wars dim your holiday glow,” the release says. “Avoid petty confrontations that can result in additional holiday expenses, including fender-benders, personal injuries and a general Grinch-like attitude.”

Here are some of AAA’s tips:
1) Head for the side door. Many shoppers want to park near their favorite stores or near the mall entrance. Most malls have secondary entrances on the sides and those entrances usually have less traffic and additional convenient spaces.
2) Play the outfield. Outlying areas normally have more open spaces, lighter traffic and a lower risk of collision. Plus, it doesn’t hurt to walk off the holiday treats. In some cases, however, those spaces may not be as secure so be aware of the risks.
3) Wait until Cyber Monday. Many retailers, in fact 87 percent will have special online promotions on Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, according to an eHoliday survey for Shop.org.

For all the suggestions, click here.

Anyone putting on their game face for Black Friday? Have any parking lot horror stories or pet peeves you’d like to share?

It’s hard to have thoughts of thanks (and giving) when you’re stuck in your cute little two-door, sandwiched between a minivan and a Suburban staring at traffic as far as the eye can see… Not that I’m being specific or anything.

But thanks to lower fuel prices this year, AAA Mid-Atlantic is predicting that 4.6 percent more Marylanders will hit the roads for the holiday this year compared with last year. (Although not me — the only road I’m hitting is the parking lot when we go out during halftime to toss the football around. I’ve learned my lesson, thank you.)

In total, approximately 794,000 Marylanders are expected to travel in one form or another for Thanksgiving. That’s up nearly 4 percent last year. Airlines also appear to be losing out to other transportation modes as just 6.5 percent of travelers (52,000) are expected to take to the skies — a 5.2 percent decline.

“It’s not surprising that Marylanders are foregoing the airport this year to reach their Thanksgiving destination,” said Regina Averella in a news release. “Given the hassles of airport security, reduced capacity, as well as added surcharges and fees, it seems Marylanders are seeking other modes of transportation that are less restrictive and perhaps more inexpensive.”

Speaking of which, anyone hear about the new Super Bowl surcharge this year? When will these guys stop?

At any rate, I’ve also noticed in my commute to work along I-95, the roads have already gotten more congested since Thursday. Seems as if the traffic madness is already upon us.

Are you going to brave the storm that’s alrady accumulating out there? So are you like me and hiding from traffic this year?

With Cyber Monday coming up in less than two weeks, my inbox has started filling up with retail predictions, trends, spending forecasts — the works. But one release veered left where everyone else was going right: when “The Myth of Cyber Monday” popped up in my messages list I was immediately intrigued.

Compiled by Northern California-based Permuto Discoveries, the graphic (available here) outlines statistical reasons why Cyber Monday, billed as the busiest online shopping day of the year, is not and never has been the top dog of online shopping days.

The term Cyber Monday was originally coined in 2005 by Shop.org after a significant number of  retailers reported a sizable increase in online sales the Monday after Thanksgiving. Since then, sales have grown from $486 million on Cyber Monday in 2005 to $846 million last year.

But neither one of those days was the busiest online shopping day of the year, according to Permuto.

$556 million in online sales took place on Dec. 12, 2005 and $887 million in sales on Dec. 9 last year made those days the busiest online shopping days of their years.

But further on, the graphic notes Cyber Monday’s sales totals are getting closer to the top online day of the year. That could mean that consumers and retailers are buying (no pun intended) the hype anyway and creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

Last year, Cyber Monday was only about $41 million off from the true busiest online day of the year. Could this year be the year it actually lives up to its name?

The National Foundation for Credit Counseling released a survey this week that found that nearly seven in 10 consumers plan to pay cash for their holiday purchases this year.

“Plan,” being the key word there. The federation’s Financial Literacy Survey conducted earlier this year revealed that one-third of all Americans have zero dollars in savings.

“Further, the holiday season has historically been a time when many consumers piled new debt on top of old, some still paying for holiday spending from the previous year,” the NFCC news release said.

So are these survey responders just delusional?

Here’s what the NFCC says: “The implications of the October survey could indicate that Americans are well-meaning, but those intentions may not translate into reality when they hit the stores. With no savings and a lack of preparation for holiday spending, consumers will likely revert back to charging their purchases…if charging privileges are still open to them.”

On the other hand, there have been reports this year of people focusing more on saving after the 2008 recession rocked financial statements.

But everyone’s definition of “saving” can be different. To some it’s opening up a saving’s account, to others it’s not spending as much money. But will that translate to more responsible spending this holiday season, as it appears many intend to do? Or will adding to debt be the way of 2009’s shopping season once again?

Or…(gasp!) will we be getting — and giving — smaller gifts this year?